Ten years following the UK entered into a rushed public vote that divided the nation and unleashed turmoil, a warning comes from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering upheavals for which nobody is equipped.
That represents the warning from two leading writers from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a possibly contentious and monumental referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gather momentum swiftly," the commentator stated. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our islands remains very unstable."
Released Volume Seeks to Stir Debate
The pair have examined the governmental, economic and societal arguments for any constitutional change in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the topic with a roadshow of lectures that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns all parties, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose implications have remained undefined because then you end up with an extraordinarily polarised community where people who have lost are not reconciled to losing and the those successful don't know precisely what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim this point is imminent, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the possibility, making it uncertain when or if there could be a national vote.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric for and against unity has hidden the absence of informed dialogue, noted the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the concept but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has gone on in universities but scarcely any elected officials or activists seek to involve themselves with even the essentials. To illustrate, what sort of state might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, no writer supports unity or the existing arrangement. Both writes two articles that strive for neutrality in detailing the rationale for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, marshalling economic and societal data, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Discussions cover national emblems, taxes, healthcare systems, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to inform and encourage discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there has not yet occurred a discussion," commented O’Toole. "Debate indicates an recognition of the notion that there may exist valid points on either side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate claim they support unification but oppose increased taxation or adopting a new flag to reflect pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin should establish what the plan from nationalist groups is other than just stating: 'We want a united Ireland and we value you'," remarked O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride believes a referendum in his era is possible and that it could happen abruptly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a bad or a feckless official who states: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, justified points, he said. "Somebody will prevail on this issue and somebody will eventually be defeated but all factions has possesses valuable insights to gain from the alternative viewpoints."
Call for Wider Discussion
Westminster must participate in the dialogue, said O’Toole. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It's a British question just as much as it is an Irish issue."
